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美國捅了馬蜂窩還想跟伊朗談一談伊朗蘇萊曼尼特朗普
2020-01-11 18:07  www.ctewgroup.com

  如果不联系近一周在中东地区发生的诸多突发事件,夏夏看到这条新闻,还以为美国调整了对伊朗政策,软化了立场。

Summer sees the news if it doesn't relate to the many emergencies that have taken place in the Middle East for nearly a week, thinking the United States has adjusted its policy towards Iran and softened its position.

  但联系美国总统特朗普前几天下令击杀伊朗高级军事指挥官苏莱曼尼的挑衅举动,再看克拉夫特信中的这句话——“根据《联合国宪章》第51条,美国杀害苏莱曼尼是合理的,美国将准备好必要时在该地区采取进一步行动,以保护美国利益”——就不免令人哑然失笑。

But it would be ironic if President Donald Trump had ordered the killing of Iran's top military commander, Suleimani, in a provocative move a few days ago, to look at the words in Kraft's letter –"It is reasonable for the United States to kill Suleimani under Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, and the United States will be prepared to take further action in the region as necessary to protect American interests ".

  诧异之余,夏夏不禁想起白宫高级顾问凯莉安妮·康韦6日的话,她说,美国总统特朗普有信心,仍可以与伊朗方面重新磋商一项新的核协议。

Surprised, the summer recalled the words of senior White House adviser Kellyanne Conway on Saturday that U.S. President Donald Trump was confident he could still renegotiate a new nuclear deal with Iran.

  好吧,总统先生,您的“如意算盘”又一次暴露了——在经济“极限施压”并未使伊朗政府改弦更张的情况下,试图通过军事“极限施压”——对伊朗“铁面将军”实施“定点清除”——迫使德黑兰就范。

All right, Mr. President, your "wishful thinking" has once again been revealed – an attempt to force Tehran to do so through military "extreme pressure "– without "exercising the limits "of the economy "that does not change the regime.”

  这种极限策略意在警告伊朗:即使它在过去几年通过在叙利亚、伊拉克、黎巴嫩、也门等国的代理人战争扩大了自身在中东地区的影响力,并成功给美国制造不少麻烦,但美国依然握有“杀手锏”,始终是该地区的“王者”。

This limiting strategy is intended to warn Iran that even though it has expanded its presence in the Middle East through proxy wars in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen over the past few years, and has succeeded in creating a lot of trouble for the US, the US still has the "kill line "and remains the region's "king power.”

  在夏夏看来,这种策略——把对手逼到绝境,要么令对手就范,要么就彻底撕破脸——极具赌徒心态。分析人士普遍认为,特朗普正在中东进行的这场豪赌搅动了全球金融和能源市场,使中东地缘政治紧张局势螺旋式升级,战争似乎一触即发。作为对特朗普“冒险一搏”的冲动性举动的牵制,美国国会众议院当地时间9日通过了一项旨在限制总统特朗普对伊朗发动战争的战争权力决议案。决议要求特朗普不得在没有获得国会同意的情况下向伊朗采取军事行动。

In summer and summer, this strategy - to push opponents to the brink, either to get their opponents down to scratch, or to rip their faces outright - is extremely gambler-minded. Analysts generally believe that Trump's gamble in the Middle East stirred global financial and energy markets, spiralling geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and the war appeared to be on the brink. As a disincentive to Trump's \"risk-taking\" impulsive move, the House of Representatives on Sept. The resolution calls for Trump to refrain from military action against Iran without congressional approval.

  事实上,美国朝野均无意与伊朗开战。在“美伊避免开战”这一点上,特朗普算得是比较准的,但夏夏以为,认定“美国可借军事施压与伊朗重新磋商新的核协议”,却难免失算。

In fact, the US has no intention of going to war with Iran. Mr. Trump is more accurate on the point of \"U.S.-I.A. avoiding a war,\"but Mr. Xia assumed that \"the U.S. could use military pressure to renegotiate a new nuclear deal with Iran,\"which would inevitably be miscalculated.

  首先,苏莱曼尼之死不会从根本上迫使伊朗就范,伊朗在美国的极限施压和多轮制裁面前表现出了极大的韧性,它虽然无法与美国直接抗衡,但在中东地区拥有庞大的代理人网络和“不对称作战实力”,足以令美国及其中东盟友的日子不太好过。忍气吞声、与美磋商新协议是伊方断然不能接受的选项。伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊也说得很清楚——伊朗将不会与“美国敌人”重启核谈判,否则将会助长美国霸权统治。

First, the death of Suleimani will not fundamentally compel Iran, which has shown great resilience in the face of America's extreme pressure and multiple rounds of sanctions, and which, though it cannot directly compete with the United States, has a large network of agents and \"unsymmetrical combat power \"in the Middle East, enough to make America and its Middle East allies less comfortable. Holding back and negotiating a new deal with the US is a flatly unacceptable option for Iraq. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also made it clear that Iran would not restart nuclear negotiations with \"American enemies,\"or it would fuel US hegemony.

  再次,有观点认为,美国击杀苏莱曼尼的冒险之举在某种程度上增强了伊朗的“声望”和面对美国的谈判地位,伊朗可以更有底气地要求美军撤出该地区。伊朗总统鲁哈尼强调,伊朗对美国杀害苏莱曼尼的“终极回应”是“彻底赶走美军”。就在苏莱曼尼身亡两天后,伊拉克议会就通过了有关结束外国军队驻扎的“逐客令”。该地区多国反美声浪高涨。

Thirdly, it is argued that the US's venture to kill Sleimani has somewhat enhanced Iran's \"reputation \"and its negotiating position in the face of the US, allowing it to be more assertive in demanding that US troops withdraw from the region. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has stressed that Iran's \"ultimate response\" to the US killing of Sleimani is \"the total removal of American troops \". Just two days after the death of Suleimani, Iraq's parliament passed a \"guest order\" to end the presence of foreign troops. The region has seen a surge of anti-American voices.

▲当地时间1月3日,伊朗德黑兰,人们参加游行抗议伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队下属“圣城旅”指挥官卡西姆·苏莱曼尼被炸身亡。(新华社)

People take part in a march to protest the bombing of al-Quds Brigade commander Qasim Suleimani, part of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in Tehran, Iran, Jan. (Xinhua News Agency)

  最后,也是最重要的一点是,国与国之间的博弈与商战不同,不是一锤子买卖,且面临更为复杂和多变的因素;特朗普政府奉行的谈判策略无异于在刀刃上跳舞,双方很可能因为误判或者偶发事件,再次让中东局势急转直下甚至爆发大规模冲突。

Finally, and most importantly, the game between nations is different from a business war, not a one-shot deal, and facing more complex and volatile factors; the Trump administration's negotiating strategy is tantamount to dancing on the edge, and the two sides are likely to let the situation in the Middle East turn sharply, or even explode, because of misjudgment or accidental events.

  美东时间8日上午,在伊朗袭击美军驻伊拉克基地后,特朗普在白宫发表全国讲话时说,他要告诉伊朗人和伊朗领导人,“我们已准备好拥抱和平。”

Speaking nationally at the White House on the morning of August 8, after Iran attacked a U.S. military base in Iraq, Trump said he wanted to tell Iranians and Iranian leaders that \"we are ready to embrace peace.\"